Arizona Wildcats Productivity Report: Analyzing McConnell’s impact in Pac-12 season

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T.J. McConnell’s improvement from the non-conference season to now merits him the Pac-12 player of the year award (YouTube video screen shot)

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WHAT IS PRODUCTIVITY RATING?:
PP: Productivity Points (Points, assists, rebounds, steals, blocked shots, FGs made, FTs made added together and then subtracted by missed FGs, missed FTs, personal fouls and turnovers)
MIN: Minutes played overall
PR: Productivity rating per minute played (Productivity points divided by minutes played)

ARIZONA 99, CAL 60
PRODUCTIVITY RATING
* — STARTERS
[table sort=”desc”]
Player,Pos,PP,MIN,PR
*Brandon Ashley,PF,36,26,1.385
Dusan Ristic,C,21,18,1.167
*T.J. McConnell,PG,26,25,1.040
*Kaleb Tarczewski,C,19,22,.864
*Rondae Hollis-Jefferson,SF,17,25,.680
Gabe York,SG,15,24,.625
Parker Jackson-Cartwright,PG,10,18,.556
*Stanley Johnson,SF,13,25,.520
Elliott Pitts,SG,3,6,.500
LESS THAN 10 MIN,,,,
Jacob Hazzard,PG,3,1,3.000
Matt Korcheck,PF,8,6,1.333
Drew Mellon,SF,1,4,.250
TOTAL TEAM,,172,200,.860
[/table]

ICYMI VIDEO: T.J. McConnell @iPass4Zona Post-game Cal http://t.co/z2YqZbdxIt

— Arizona Basketball (@APlayersProgram) March 6, 2015

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This site’s productivity rating is a way to monitor which players get the most out of their minutes.

It’s not an exact science. Elliott Pitts, for example, has a low rating of .236 out of the 461 minutes he has logged. That’s not all because he has not produced — he would be the first to tell you he has room for improvement — it is because of how he fits into Arizona’s equation on the floor. He is often the Wildcats’ last option when he’s on the court, giving way to the more experienced and called upon players.

T.J. McConnell ranks third among players of that category behind Stanley Johnson and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson in the overall production ratings. But none of the Wildcats come close to the gains McConnell made in the Pac-12 season.

PRODUCTIVITY RATING IMPROVEMENT
Among Arizona’s top six regulars. NC: Non-conference
[table=”desc”]
Player,NC,Pac12,Diff
McConnell,.561,.672,+.111
Tarczewski,.483,.529,+.046
York,.531,.516,-.015
Johnson,.748,.730,-.018
Ashley,.602,.572,-.030
Hollis-Jefferson,.781,.642,-.139
[/table]

His productivity rating in conference games is .672. He was at a .561 rating in the non-conference schedule. The plus-.111 in the ratings is the only positive advancement among the regulars other than Kaleb Tarczewski, who had a .483 rating in the non-conference season compared to .529 in Pac-12 games.

Johnson was at .748 in non-conference games and is at .730 in Pac-12 games. Hollis-Jefferson went from .781 after the UNLV game on Dec. 23 to .642 in Pac-12 games.

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PAC-12 RPI RATING
Present RPI ranking of the Pac-12.
[table=”desc”]
Rank,Team,Ovr,Pac12,SOS,Top50
No.7,Arizona,27-3,15-2,46,6-0
No.13,Utah,22-6,13-4,38,2-5
No.31,Oregon,22-8,13-5,67,1-4
No.52,UCLA,19-12,11-7,34,2-7
No.65,Stanford,18-11,9-8,74,2-5
No.87,Arizona St.,16-14,8-9,40,1-7
No.96,California,17-13,7-10,69,0-6
No.106,Colorado,14-15,7-10,39,0-7
No.116,Oregon St.,16-13,8-10,113,1-5
No.120,Washington,15-14,4-13,97,3-3
No.150,Washington St.,12-17,6-11,73,1-5
No.208,USC,11-19,3-15,87,0-5
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Hollis-Jefferson’s dip of .139 is the most significant among the regulars, but there are factors involved. He was not called upon as much to be a focal point of the offense; McConnell took on more of that role when the Pac-12 season started. Hollis-Jefferson’s priority in many games was to shut down the opposition’s top threat whether it be a point guard or power forward.

McConnell’s development as an all-around performer in conference play warrants him the Pac-12 player of the year. The productivity numbers bear that. Johnson has a better productivity rating in conference games than McConnell, but McConnell’s dramatic emergence put Arizona over the top.

McConnell’s surge actually started to happen in the two games before the Pac-12 season started Jan. 4 against ASU at McKale Center. He led the Wildcats in productivity rating in the games at UTEP and UNLV, the team’s first true road games.

Before the UTEP game, McConnell had the seventh-highest productivity rating on the team at .525. He now ranks third at .625.

He went from a potential second-team All-Pac-12 choice on Dec. 16 — less than three months ago — to a Pac-12 Player of the Year favorite now.

One national college basketball analyst, Doug Gottlieb, Tweeted last night that McConnell is worthy of a first-team All-American selection.

McConnell means as every bit as much to this year’s teams as Steve Kerr and Sean Elliott meant to theirs in their respective senior seasons. That sets up an emotional farewell tomorrow at McKale Center.

“I’m hoping tears don’t come out but I’m imagining they will,” McConnell said. “There’s no place like this in the country. I love playing for this school. I love playing in front of the fans. And with my teammates and the coaching staff, it’s going to be an emotional day for me because I don’t want to leave this place ever.”

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SEASON PRODUCTIVITY RATING
[table sort=”desc”]
Player,Pos,G,S,PP,MIN,PR
Stanley Johnson,SG,30,29,625,847,.738
R.Hollis-Jefferson,SF,30,17,584,838,.697
T.J. McConnell,PG,30,30,557,891,.625
Brandon Ashley,PF,30,30,487,831,.586
Gabe York,SG,29,13,343,656,.523
P.Jackson-Cartwright,PG,26,0,139,273,.509
Kaleb Tarczewski,C,30,30,400,787,.508
Elliott Pitts,SG,30,1,109,461,.236
AVG 5-9.9 MIN,,,,
Craig Victor,PF,8,0,38,57,.667
Dusan Ristic,C,28,0,151,273,.553
AVG 1-4.9 MIN,,,,
Matt Korcheck,PF,18,0,47,63,.746
Trey Mason,SG,8,0,2,11,.182
Drew Mellon,SF,10,0,1,18,.056
Jacob Hazzard,PG,15,0,-10,24,-.416
TOTAL TEAM,,30,,3473,6025,.576
[/table]

ARIZONA PAC-10/12
PLAYERS OF THE YEAR:
[table sort=”desc”]
Name (Year),G,S,PP,MIN,PR
Derrick Williams (2011),38,38,1190,1141,1.043
Sean Elliott (1989),33,33,1128,1125,1.003
Chris Mills (1993),28,28,838,870,.963
Sean Elliott (1988),38,38,1167,1249,.934
D. Stoudamire (1995),30,30,964,1092,.883
Mike Bibby (1998),35,35,905,1124,.805
Jason Terry (1999),29,29,877,1107,.792
Nick Johnson (2014),38,38,848,1254,.676
[/table]

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ARIZONA SCHEDULE/PRODUCTIVITY RESULTS
[table sort=”desc”]
Date,Opponent,Results,TeamPR,Productivity Leader,Pos,PP,MIN,PR
March 5,Cal,99-60 (W),.860,Brandon Ashley,PF,36,26,1.385
Feb. 28,Utah,63-57 (W),.450,Gabe York,SG,19,25,.760
Feb. 26,Colorado,82-54 (W),.571,Gabe York,SG,25,23,1.087
Feb. 21,UCLA,57-45 (W),.400,Dusan Ristic,C,24,11,2.182
Feb. 19,USC,87-57 (W),.574,T.J. McConnell,PG,20,19,1.053
Feb. 15,Washington St.,86-59 (W),.640,Kaleb Tarczewski,C,28,24,1.167
Feb. 13,Washington,86-62 (W),.725,Stanley Johnson,SG,39,27,1.444
Feb. 7,ASU,81-78 (L),.435,T.J. McConnell,PG,30,34,.882
Jan. 30,Oregon St.,57-34 (W),.475,T.J. McConnell,PG,22,30,.733
Jan. 28,Oregon,90-56 (W),.715,Dusan Ristic,C,18,13,1.385
Jan. 24,Cal,73-50 (W),.550,Stanley Johnson,SG,31,30,1.033
Jan. 22,Stanford,89-82 (W),.585,Brandon Ashley,PF,22,16,1.375
Jan. 17,Utah,69-51 (W),.525,Stanley Johnson,SG,30,28,1.071
Jan. 15,Colorado,68-54 (W),.545,Stanley Johnson,SG,40,32,1.250
Jan. 11,Oregon St.,58-56 (L),.365,Rondae Hollis-Jefferson,SF,26,34,.765
Jan. 8,Oregon,80-62 (W),.590,Rondae Hollis-Jefferson,SF,26,25,1.040
Jan. 4,ASU,73-49 (W),.530,Dusan Ristic,C,14,11,1.273
Dec. 23,UNLV,71-67 (L),.446,T.J. McConnell,PG,28,39,.718
Dec. 19,UTEP,60-55 (W),.395,T.J. McConnell,PG,23,35,.657
Dec. 16,Oakland,101-64 (W),.835,Craig Victor,PF,13,10,1.300
Dec. 13,Michigan,84-50 (W),.640,Stanley Johnson,SF,31,27,1.148
Dec. 9,Utah Valley,87-56 (W),.710,Dusan Ristic,C,23,18,1.278
Dec. 6,Gonzaga,66-63 OT (W),.435,Brandon Ashley,PF,19,38,.500
Dec. 2,Gardner-Webb,91-65 (W),.745,Parker Jackson-Cartwright,PG,17,13,1.308
Nov. 26,San Diego State,61-59 (W),.525,Stanley Johnson,SG,29,37,.784
Nov. 25,Kansas State,72-68 (W),.540,Stanley Johnson,SG,21,25,.840
Nov. 24,Missouri,72-53 (W),.525,Rondae Hollis-Jefferson,SF,25,23,1.087
Nov. 19,Cal-Irvine,71-54 (W),.610,Rondae Hollis-Jefferson,SF,31,29,1.069
Nov. 16,Cal State-Northridge,86-68 (W),.605,Rondae Hollis-Jefferson,SF,26,22,1.182
Nov. 14,Mt. St. Mary’s,78-55 (W),.660,Rondae Hollis-Jefferson,SF,28,21,1.333
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ALLSPORTSTUCSON.com publisher, writer and editor Javier Morales is a former Arizona Press Club award winner. He has also written articles for Bleacher Report and Lindy’s College Sports.