[tps_title]USC at Oregon[/tps_title]
[tps_header]1:30 p.m., ESPN[/tps_header]
USC (7-3, 5-2) AT
OREGON (7-3, 5-2)
12:30 p.m., ESPN
Pointspread: Oregon is favored by 4 points
— The line has shifted from Oregon as only a 1.5-point favorite to now 4 points.
— Though it may not be the Pac-12 championship preview once anticipated, Oregon and Southern California’s second-half resurgences have Saturday’s showdown at Autzen Stadium still carrying plenty of weight.
— USC is back in control of the South Division thanks to a four-game win streak and Utah’s recent struggles. The Trojans moved into a first-place tie with the Utes following last week’s 27-24 victory at Colorado and Utah’s loss at Arizona. The Trojans, who host reeling UCLA in next Saturday’s regular-season finale, own the tiebreaker via a 42-24 win over Utah on Oct. 24 that began their turnaround under interim coach Clay Helton.
— Oregon will require some help in the North despite last Saturday’s 38-36 victory at first-place Stanford, as it needs to win out and have the Cardinal lose to California today. The Ducks conclude the regular season at home against last-place Oregon State next Friday.
— With Oregon back in the Top 25 and still in contention for the conference title, the Stanford game may end up more of a reminder of what could have been had quarterback Vernon Adams not fractured his finger in the season opener. Adams was hampered in a loss at Michigan State the following week and forced out of the Ducks’ 62-20 home defeat to Utah on Sept. 26. He subsequently missed two games, including a damaging home loss to Washington State on Oct. 10 . Oregon has re-emerged as perhaps the Pac-12’s most dangerous team with Adams back healthy, winning four straight since his return.
— The Ducks are averaging 42.3 points and 538.5 total yards during the streak, and they followed a 777-yard outburst against Cal by gaining 436 versus Stanford. The Ducks’ trademark explosiveness was fully on display against the Cardinal, with Oregon recording touchdowns on a 75-yard run from Charles Nelson and Adams passes of 49 and 47 yards.
— Cody Kessler, the Pac-12 leader in passing efficiency, and receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster face an Oregon defense that’s been vulnerable to downfield attacks all season long. The Ducks have allowed 317.7 yards per game and 31 touchdowns through the air, ranking near the bottom of the FBS in both categories. Smith-Schuster tops the conference with 1,160 receiving yards and has 10 touchdowns on 63 catches.
— The Trojans have improved defensively as well, yielding 83.8 rushing yards and 2.7 per attempt during the win streak. The unit gets its toughest challenge yet, though, as the Ducks rank fourth in the FBS at 297.4 rushing yards per game while averaging 6.2 per carry. Royce Freeman produced a sixth straight 100-yard effort with 105 on 16 rushes against Stanford. The sophomore’s 139.2 yards per game tops the conference.
— The Pac-12 heavyweights are meeting for the first time since a 62-51 Oregon win at the Rose Bowl in 2012. The Trojans won 38-35 in Eugene the previous year.
Southern Cal is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Southern Cal is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Southern Cal’s last 7 games
Southern Cal is 8-15 ATS in its last 23 games on the road
Oregon is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Oregon is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Oregon is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Oregon is 20-4 SU in its last 24 games at home
My pick: Oregon will win and cover
Steve Rivera’s pick: Oregon will win but USC will cover
Anthony Gimino’s pick: Oregon will win and cover
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