[tps_title]Arizona at USC[/tps_title]
[tps_header]8:30 p.m., ESPN[/tps_header]
ARIZONA (5-4, 2-4) AT
USC (5-3, 3-2)
8:30 p.m.., ESPN
Pointspread: USC by 19.5 points
— Line has moved from USC being a 16.5-point favorite to 19.5 points now.
— The drama over Rich Rodriguez’s future is heavy at Arizona, and it might get even worse in November if these two programs continue on their divergent paths at the Coliseum. USC has won its last two games under interim coach Clay Helton, and the Trojans’ morale is at a high heading into the showdown with the Wildcats.
— The Trojans are firmly in the race for the Pac-12 South title, and every win improves Helton’s slim-but-growing chances of landing the full-time job.
— Arizona, the defending Pac-12 South champions, have lost two straight and four of six, including a humiliating 49-3 defeat at Washington last weekend. Rodriguez is prominently in the conversation for job openings at Virginia Tech and South Carolina, adding to the uncertainty around a program in danger of taking a significant step back. “When adversity strikes, there are three things that happen,” Rodriguez said. ”You either fight, flight or freeze. We are going to fight. We will fight through the adversity. I don’t think anyone will flee, and I hope no one freezes.”
— The Trojans’ offense has scored at least 27 points in all but one game since Helton became the play-caller this season after Steve Sarkisian was fired. Meanwhile, the Wildcats have allowed at least 45 points in all of their four defeats, along with 31 points by losing Colorado, during their six-game spiral.
— Arizona is expected to be without running back Nick Wilson, who has a knee injury. The Wildcats’ top offensive player isn’t the only key contributor out: Both starting offensive guards (Jacob Alsadek and Freddie Tagaloa) are out, as are elite linebackers Scooby Wright and Derrick Turituri. The Trojans are also missing several important players, and they aren’t sure whether No. 1 receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster will be able to play after midweek surgery on his broken hand.
— USC has held three of its last four opponents under 140 yards rushing, reversing its early-season struggle against the run. Arizona’s offense has rushed for 825 more yards than its opponents this season. Jared Baker is an adequate replacement for Wilson.
— Once again, Arizona is drawing from the motivation of many of its players from California getting passed over during the recruiting process by USC. “Probably 100 percent of our guys weren’t recruited from them, and a lot of them are from California, so hopefully they have a little edge about that,” Rodriguez said.
— The schools’ last eight meetings have been decided by a touchdown or less.
Arizona is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Arizona is 16-8 SU in its last 24 games
Arizona is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Arizona’s last 10 games
Southern Cal is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games
Southern Cal is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Southern Cal’s last 6 games at home
Southern Cal is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games when playing Arizona
My pick: USC will win and cover
Steve Rivera’s pick: USC will win and cover
Anthony Gimino’s pick: USC will win and cover
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